Bias List

Faulty Deduction

hard-easy-effect

Hard-Easy Effect

The hard–easy effect occurs when, based on a specific level of difficulty of a given task, subjective judgements do not accurately reflect the true difficulty of that task. This manifests as a tendency to overestimate the probability of success in difficult tasks, and to underestimate the probability of success in easy tasks.

illusion-of-validity

Illusion of Validity

Belief that furtherly acquired information generates additional relevant data for predictions, even when it evidently does not.

insensitivity-to-sample-size

Insensitivity to Sample Size

The tendency to under-expect variation in small samples.

jumping-to-conclusions

Jumping to Conclusions

Drawing a quick conclusion without fairly considering relevent (and easily available) evidence.

less-is-better-effect

Less-is-Better Effect

The tendency to prefer a smaller set to a larger set judged separately, but not jointly.

relativist-fallacy

Relativist Fallacy

Rejecting a claim because of a belief that truth is relative to a person or group.

seersucker-illusion

Seersucker Illusion

Over-reliance on expert advice. This has to do with the avoidance of responsibility. People call in "experts" to forecast when typically they have no greater chance of predicting an outcome than the rest of the population. In other words, "for every seer there's a sucker."

spotlight

Spotlight

Assuming an observation from a small sample size applies to an entire group.

system-justification

System Justification

Existing social, economic, and political arrangements tend to be preferred, and alternatives disparaged sometimes even at the expense of individual and collective self-interest.